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High probability of high oscillation of plastic

人气:Publication time:2017-12-25
The day after the national day, plastic futures mainly in the 9500 - 10000 yuan / ton interval wide oscillation, not out of a decent unilateral market. In fact, the downstream factories and traders in the last 2 months are less willing to purchase over 9900 yuan / tonnes, but deal with a volume of 9500 - 9600 yuan / ton. Looking forward to the future, we think that as the demand gradually enters the seasonal off-season and the supply pressure is gradually increasing, we can meet the high level of empty list in the vicinity of 9900 yuan / ton.
 
Increase in supply loop ratio
 
At the end of November the supply or obvious increment. Next week, 2 new sets of new capacity will be re - driven. Zhongtian co-founder device (370 thousand tons LDPE) in the early stage after driving and parking device, Shenhua Ningxia coal (450 thousand tons) in September is also driving after parking, is expected by the end of November will be driving again. If the above 2 sets of devices are ultimately driving, there will be 82/12=6.8 million tons of new monthly output since December.
 
The biggest difference in the current market is the overall import of the four seasons. Because the overall price in the three quarter is good, and the domestic and foreign economies are booming. At that time, the market looked forward to the four quarter. Therefore, we expect that a large number of imported goods will be concentrated to port in the fourth quarter. In fact, the import data of polyethylene in September has reached 1 million 150 thousand tons, which is higher than the market expectations, so it is not too much to maintain the import level of 1 million 100 thousand tons in November and December. This is no doubt free from domestic polyethylene prices.
 
It is worth noting that the recent market rumors Iran PE device malfunction, the understanding of the Iran high and low voltage linear production is normal, not normal, which has become part of a reason for long speculation, but unexpected short-term positive such as time will gradually fade.
 
The slack season in November
 
Demand will gradually enter the off-season starting in November. In 2017 after the Spring Festival season demand is less than expected, but the two or three quarter off-season demand but not short off-season, which makes the market the traditional season and prediction approach based on the trend of raw material prices significantly weakened, the market is more according to the orders, middlemen and the upstream petrochemical plant inventory comprehensive determine the price of the downstream plant.
 
For linear, we will generally be divided into demand for plastic sheeting and packaging film, accounted for about 25% and 60%. Agricultural demand volume is small, but it has strong seasonal. Packaging film starts performance is more stable, the majority of enterprises to. From the start rate data from previous years, mid November agricultural plant demand will decline, the operating rate will gradually decline. The contraction of this part of the demand will also cause a certain drop in the price. In recent years, due to the fluctuating price of raw materials and the fact that the order is still in the rush season, most of the enterprises are dealing with raw material price fluctuation with low inventory. The price is too high, the purchase intention of the enterprise is insufficient; the price falls greatly, and the downstream has the willingness to make a positive stock. Therefore, the demand for raw materials of the packaging film tends to just need to purchase, this part of the demand will be maintained until next year at the beginning of January. On the whole, the weakening of demand side more from agricultural demand contraction.
 
In addition, as of November 22nd, the petrochemical stock has fallen to 590 thousand tons, at a normal low level. The supply chain increased demand, a decrease of the expected qualitative based on this analysis, we believe that the end of November the petrochemical stocks will gradually tired of library, facing low inventory, high prices is a good time to go short when turning.
 
To sum up, we think that the high probability of high oscillation of plastics is larger, and the near 9900 point is a good chance to make empty.
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