Qingdao Changyue Plastic Machinery Co., Ltd

Hotline: 0086 13705428176


Relevant information

Telephone:0086 13705428176

Mobile phone:0086 15153218195


Q Q:342896940


Address:NO.678 Changyue Plastic Machinery Co., Ltd. of Jiaozhou Ma railway, Qingdao, Shandong Province

Customer witness
current location:Home > STRENGTH > Customer witness >

A weak or weak trend in plastics

人气:Publication time:2017-12-25
Brief description: the price of the upstream crude oil is top, the market supply is sufficient, the plastic consumption is weak, the plastic rise is weak, or the trend will be weak.
First, the cost collapse
 The estimated OPEC released November monthly report: the fourth quarter of 2017 global oil demand for 97 million 900 thousand barrels / day, crude oil supply of non OPEC 58 million 300 thousand barrels / day, liquefied petroleum gas OPEC and yield of unconventional crude oil 6 million 400 thousand barrels / day, OPEC October production of 32 million 590 thousand barrels / day. According to this data, there is a 610 thousand barrel / day gap in the global supply of crude oil at the four seasons.
There are many reasons for the rebalancing of global crude oil supply and demand. First, the limited production of OPEC is the most important reason for the rebalancing of global crude oil. At present, although limited production has reduced the market share of OPEC, the benefits brought by oil price increase still outweigh its disadvantages. In addition, Saudi Arabia has made it clear that only when the production reduction agreement reduces the global crude oil inventory to the average level of the past five years, will it decide to withdraw from the production reduction agreement, and then adopt different ways to maintain the balance between the supply and demand of crude oil, so that the crude oil storage will not increase. Therefore the probability of the end of the month OPEC ministerial meeting on the extension of the OPEC limited production limit is very large, the only difference is whether the limited production efforts will expand. From the current situation, to extend the period of production is a high probability, but increased efforts to limit production when oil prices are high, the global oil supply shortage is relatively difficult, so I think the OPEC ministerial meeting of the final resolution is to extend the production period of the probability limit, to maintain the current efforts to limit production unchanged, which is in line with the market expected. Based on this judgment, once the results of the OPEC ministerial conference are published, the earlier anticipation of the result is the Lido or the profit will be made.
In terms of commercial crude oil inventories, by the end of November 3rd, the commercial crude oil inventories in the US were 457 million 143 thousand barrels, down 78 million 400 thousand barrels from the March 31st high level, dropped by 14.64%, and gasoline inventories were 209 million 537 thousand barrels, down 29 million 566 thousand barrels compared with that in March 31st, and decreased by 12.37%. This year's Hurricane weather has a major impact on the production of crude oil in the United States. The number of active drilling in the US has slipped, leading to a decline of 300 thousand barrels per day in the US. In this case, the United States has to use its own stock to fill the gap in production. However, with the passage of time, the pre - affected drilling has been resumed in succession. By the end of November 10th, the number of active drilling in the United States was 907, which increased by 9 compared with the previous statistics day. The number of active drilling in Canada was 203, which increased by 11 compared with the previous one. With the recovery of active drilling numbers, the crude oil production in North America is bound to increase. This will change the problem of insufficient oil supply and suppress oil prices.
In addition to the impact of supply and demand, geopolitics is also a prop to support the oil price. The strenuous struggles of the Saudi royal family and the Kurdish regional referendum have caused the market to worry about the supply of crude oil in the Middle East. However, the Kurdish place has already been compromised by pressure. Saudi Arabia's royal family issue is also hard to make a substantial impact on the supply of crude oil. Therefore, the geopolitical impact on oil prices will weaken with the end of the early market speculation. Not only that, but this year, the United States has only been raising interest rates 2 times, less than the previous market expectations of 3-4 times. So the market is expected to raise interest rates at the December interest rate conference. From the trend of US dollar index, the US dollar index has bottomed out since September, so the US dollar that continued to strengthen will also inhibit oil price.

 Chart 1: PE Petrochemical Stock in four major areas of North China, East China, Southern China and central China (unit: tons)
The profit of oil PE is roughly 2700 yuan / ton, and the profit of coal making PE is roughly 3300 yuan / ton, while the profit of manufacturing enterprises has declined, but it is still at a normal level. Especially for coal enterprises, the current profit is a high level in the past two months. Under such circumstances, the overall production enthusiasm of enterprises is guaranteed. From the view of the operation device, currently on the market still maintenance device in addition to the old plant in Lanzhou petrochemical and Panjin ethylene production for many years, only Shanghai Petrochemical 100 thousand tons of equipment, 250 thousand tons of equipment, transit co-founder of the Pucheng clean energy 300 thousand tons, 300 thousand tons of coal plant extension device, Tianjin 300 thousand tons of ethylene plant and Jilin Petrochemical 300 thousand tons, a total of 1 million 550 thousand tons. Of which 350 thousand tons of Shanghai petrochemical device and the co-founder of transit in early September has been discontinued market has already digested the production of Dumbledore, while the rest of the device in addition to the Pucheng clean energy production in mid November, the rest will resume production at the end of October. Not only that, since October, the resumption of production pre maintenance device with a large area, the cumulative production reached 2 million 355 thousand tons, while the supply pressure peak will erupt in the end of the month. Besides, although the import and export data have not been released, the market expects that the volume of PE to port will be larger in October, which further exacerbates the problem of oversupply of PE in China. In a comprehensive way, the sharp fall in plastic prices is largely a response to the increase in supply.
Three, demand is weak
In addition to the supply pressure, the poor performance also restricts the price of plastics. Although the film is the peak season demand, downstream film factory operating at a high point of the year. However, the downstream film factory for plastic stock has been finished, and the earlier plastic price rebound strength, downstream enterprises purchasing will be further suppressed. Poor demand has made a further suppression of the price of plastics. Afternoon, plastic production complex will end at the end of October, but the demand side has been difficult to improve the imbalance between supply and demand so the whole plastic will continue.
Four, future market forecast
To sum up, the price of crude oil fell sharply due to the cost of plastic collapse; enterprises operating capacity remained at a high level caused by plastic overall supply side demand; with the passage of time, film season has ended, the lower orders declined. Based on the above judgment, Jinshi futures team believes that the price of plastic futures has already had the value of shorting, so Jinshi futures team is ready to operate empty futures on plastic futures.