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First quarter plastic or present interval state

人气:Publication time:2017-12-25
The supply side, some provinces and cities for the haze governance requirements of petrochemical enterprises and staggering production, supply reduction. It is used to eliminate global surplus stock, but if the market is overheated, it may also withdraw from the agreement in advance. The outer disk has the suppression of the weak. At present, the petrochemical stock is low, and the demand is in the small off season in the peak season. So, the plastic or the bottom state of the section. In the 1 quarter, the purchasing peak is coming, and the seasonal rebound is expected to come into being.
 
The interval oscillation is not destroyed. December is still a weak season, but the low position is supported to prepare for a rebound in the peak season.
 
Market performance
 
This week, although some plastic futures broken bits, but still in the interval (9215-9940). Technically, low support should be stronger. At present, the end of the season and agricultural production season, spring has not come. Therefore, the market will run in a bottoming way.
 
Today, the main plastic 1805 contract reported to receive 9390 yuan, weekly decline of 385 yuan.
 
Influence factors and analysis
 
This week, plastic futures fell sharply. This is related to the weakening of plastic consumption, on the other hand, the market rumours that more new production capacity is postponed to start in next year. It is expected that the output will be released at the beginning of next year, so the supply is much more. These are temporary and emotional.
 
On the spot, the price of the 7042 petrochemical plant is down slightly. Qilu petrochemicals North China newspaper 9850 yuan, Yangzi Petrochemical Huadong 9800 yuan, Guangzhou petrochemical Southern China newspaper 10100, Lanzhou Petrochemical southwest newspaper 9850 yuan. Visible, spot more water, 1805 contracts under 9300 yuan continue to fall in space is limited.
 
The supply side, some provinces and cities for the haze governance requirements of petrochemical enterprises and staggering production, supply reduction. In addition, the petrochemical stock is on the low level. As of November 22nd, the stock of petrochemicals fell to 590 thousand tons.
 
The demand side, the current agricultural consumption season ended, the market entered the off-season. In winter, procurement and stocking have not yet appeared, or wait until January, then, consumption again into the consumer season.
 
US crude oil has been stagnant in the near future of $60, and has been adjusted by ABC.
 
At last night's annual meeting, OPEC and Russia agreed to extend the reduction agreement expired in March until the end of 2018. It is used to eliminate global surplus stock, but if the market is overheated, it may also withdraw from the agreement in advance.
 
In the short term, the oil has the adjustment needs and the seasonal light season.
 
In the long run, with the effect of the limited production and the winter and spring consumption season, the crude oil will maintain the rising trend until next March.
 
For plastics, the rise in oil prices is bound to raise the cost of plastic production.
 
Conclusion and strategy
 
Near Christmas, America has a habit of clearing houses. The outer disk has the suppression of the weak. At present, the petrochemical stock is low, and the demand is in the small off season in the peak season. So, the plastic or the bottom state of the section. In the 1 quarter, the purchasing peak is coming, and the seasonal rebound is expected to come into being.

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